A Macquarie analysis shows that home prices have stopped falling and are likely to rise moderately.

According to Macquarie researchers, house prices have stopped falling.

Analysts told clients in a report: “Nationwide, home prices are likely to rise moderately.”

Macquarie analysis data from Domain APM and CoreLogic’s RP Data price data, and then adjusted to the seasonal factors to make an assessment.

The report pointed out that the growth of housing prices and activities are seasonal, so the data must be seasonally adjusted in order to clearly explain the price movements.

After a seasonally adjusted monthly home price growth in the APM capital cities has picked up slightly in recent months.

CoreLogic data also showed a rebound. Data from CoreLogic in mid-January showed a significant improvement in the seasonally adjusted housing price growth, but sales in January were very low.

Macquarie is cautious on the future and does not overestimate the trend in house prices. It is not expected that prices will rebound in 2016.

Justin Fabo and Ric Deverell, analysts who wrote the report, said there are three main reasons why there will be no rebound as in 2016:

First, the cash rate was cut by 50 basis points at the time, but this year only guesses when interest rates will rise in the end. As in the past, rising interest rates will eventually become the major stumbling block to house prices.

The second reason is that under the restrictions of the Australian Financial Services Authority, banks have become more cautious about lending. Third, property investment has become less attractive due to the rising interest rates and low returns on interest-only loans.

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